Forecasting Solutions for Public Health Preparedness

ABOUT THE PROJECT

Two linear graphs of "Chronic Disease Projections" data.

Sponsor:

THRC's Community Health and Economic Resilience Research (CHERR) Center of Excellence

PI:

Dr. Eduardo Perez

Research Pillar(s):

An icon of a road with a leaf cluster as the middle pavement marking.
A briefcase icon with a Red Cross symbol, meant to represent the STEM and Healthcare Workforce priority.
A head icon with a heart in place of a brain, meant to represent the Personal Health and Wellbeing pillar.
An icon of an medical monitor showing heart beat activity, meant to represent the Digital Healthcare Transformation pillar.
An ambulance moving at high speed with the siren on, meant to represent the Emergency Preparedness pillar.

This project uses simulation models and decision theory analysis to identify, evaluate, and recommend resource allocation, interventions, and policies that enhance public health preparedness after a natural disaster. 

Using an agent-based model, the study examined the impacts of a hurricane event on populations with cardiovascular disease, testing the effectiveness of key interventions to ensure continuity of care for displaced individuals and forecasting the long-term health outcomes resulting from different scenarios. 

Findings from this research offer key insights to improve health service delivery during disaster events and improve data-driven decision making for critical health+resilience challenges. 

Researchers & Collaborators

Headshot of Dr. Eduardo Perez.

Dr. Eduardo Perez

Faculty Fellow, THRC

Professor, Ingram School of Engineering

Headshot of Dana Birnberg.

Dana Birnberg

Collaborator

Director, Preparedness Management Unit CHEPR

Headshot of Jeff W. Hoogheem.

Jeff W. Hoogheem

Collaborator

Director, Center for Health Emergency Preparedness and Response (CHEPR)

Headshot of Dr. Yan Li.

Dr. Yan Li

Collaborator

Associate Professor, Population Health Science and Policy, Mount Sinai NY

Headshot of Dr. José Pagán.

Dr. José Pagán

Collaborator

Chair and Professor, Public Health Policy and Management, New York University

Headshot of Michelle Petraitis.

Michelle Petraitis

Collaborator

MPH Director of Response and Recovery Unit CHEPR

PARTNERS

Texas Dept of State Health Services logo.
Center for Health Emergency Preparedness & Response (CHEPR) logo.

INTERACTIVE DATA MODEL

Decision-making tool to inform planning for future natural disasters.

PUBLICATION

Providing Continuity of Care for Chronic Diseases After Natural Disasters: A Resource Allocation Model for Public Health Preparedness in Texas

Author: Dr. Eduardo Perez

Two key strategies emerged to reduce the impact of disasters on patients with CVD:

  • Encourage providers and insurers to assist patients with personal preparedness plans.
  • Improve information-sharing platforms to ensure access to health records for displaced patients.